Brazil_mortality_ Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
3-<12mo_high 1.14 (0.86, 1.46) 0.88 (0.78, 1.5) 0.98 (0.8, 1.24) 1.17 (0.92, 1.48) 0.92 (0.79, 1.09)
3-<12mo_low 0.89 (0.72, 1.42) 0.88 (0.72, 1.43) 0.82 (0.59, 1.16) 0.98 (0.75, 1.32) 0.85 (0.67, 1.1)
3-<12mo_medium 1.18 (0.94, 1.48) 0.92 (0.77, 1.47) 0.89 (0.72, 1.12) 1.18 (0.94, 1.51) 1 (0.84, 1.21)
3-<24mo_high 1.2 (0.99, 1.47) 0.92 (0.85, 1.01) 1.03 (0.89, 1.21) 1.2 (0.99, 1.47) 1 (0.86, 1.15)
3-<24mo_low 1.12 (0.79, 1.56) 1.12 (0.79, 1.55) 0.88 (0.67, 1.14) 0.99 (0.8, 1.24) 0.9 (0.75, 1.08)
3-<24mo_medium 0.99 (0.78, 1.56) 1.25 (0.82, 1.62) 0.94 (0.77, 1.15) 1.15 (0.94, 1.42) 0.96 (0.81, 1.15)
3-<60mo_high 1.2 (0.96, 1.49) 1.02 (0.93, 1.12) 1.11 (0.94, 1.33) 1.22 (1, 1.5) 1.21 (1, 1.47)
3-<60mo_low 1.06 (0.77, 1.32) 1.06 (0.77, 1.32) 0.87 (0.7, 1.09) 0.98 (0.81, 1.18) 0.79 (0.7, 0.89)
3-<60mo_medium 1 (0.85, 1.49) 1.27 (0.9, 1.59) 1.02 (0.87, 1.22) 1.15 (0.98, 1.38) 0.96 (0.84, 1.09)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
3-<12mo_high 0.000 0.171 0.828 0.001
3-<12mo_low 0.962 0.000 0.038 0.000
3-<12mo_medium 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000
3-<24mo_high 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000
3-<24mo_low 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
3-<24mo_medium 0.486 0.514 0.000 0.000
3-<60mo_high 0.153 0.000 0.847 0.000
3-<60mo_low 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
3-<60mo_medium 0.326 0.000 0.100 0.574

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
3-<12mo_high NoPCV 0.7987002 pop 0.1659455 E40_E46 0.0576999
3-<12mo_low E40_E46 0.7067347 pop 0.3000924 Q20_Q28 0.1152071
3-<12mo_medium NoPCV 0.7578572 R95_R99 0.1539838 pop 0.1216811
3-<24mo_high NoPCV 0.9984811 Q00_Q07 0.0272622 G80_G83 0.0253266
3-<24mo_low pop 0.8793483 E40_E46 0.1225951 V01_X59 0.0649017
3-<24mo_medium pop 0.7275839 NoPCV 0.2640561 R00_R09 0.0418714
3-<60mo_high NoPCV 0.9980773 D55_D59 0.1432579 G10_G14 0.0234562
3-<60mo_low pop 0.8177384 E40_E46 0.1403933 NoPCV 0.0579509
3-<60mo_medium pop 0.7781192 NoPCV 0.2357309 I30_I52 0.0251608

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
3-<12mo_high 0.88 (0.78, 1.5) pop 0.17 0.87 (0.78, 1.02) E40_E46 0.06 0.87 (0.77, 0.98) Q00_Q07 0.02 0.87 (0.77, 0.98)
3-<12mo_low 0.88 (0.72, 1.43) E40_E46 0.71 1.13 (0.77, 1.58) pop 0.3 0.83 (0.61, 1.02) Q20_Q28 0.12 0.84 (0.63, 1.03)
3-<12mo_medium 0.92 (0.77, 1.47) R95_R99 0.15 0.93 (0.8, 1.5) pop 0.12 0.92 (0.8, 1.06) I30_I52 0.03 0.92 (0.8, 1.07)
3-<24mo_high 0.92 (0.85, 1.01) Q00_Q07 0.03 0.92 (0.85, 1) G80_G83 0.03 0.92 (0.85, 1.01) B00_B09 0.02 0.92 (0.85, 1.01)
3-<24mo_low 1.12 (0.79, 1.55) pop 0.88 0.83 (0.73, 0.96) E40_E46 0.12 0.85 (0.69, 0.99) V01_X59 0.06 0.85 (0.72, 0.99)
3-<24mo_medium 1.25 (0.82, 1.62) pop 0.73 0.9 (0.78, 1.04) R00_R09 0.04 0.9 (0.77, 1.03) R95_R99 0.03 0.91 (0.8, 1.03)
3-<60mo_high 1.02 (0.93, 1.12) D55_D59 0.14 1.03 (0.94, 1.13) G10_G14 0.02 1.02 (0.94, 1.12) I60_69 0.02 1.02 (0.92, 1.13)
3-<60mo_low 1.06 (0.77, 1.32) pop 0.82 0.83 (0.73, 0.94) E40_E46 0.14 0.85 (0.72, 0.97) R95_R99 0.01 0.85 (0.74, 0.97)
3-<60mo_medium 1.27 (0.9, 1.59) pop 0.78 0.97 (0.86, 1.1) I30_I52 0.03 0.97 (0.86, 1.1) K55_K63 0.02 0.97 (0.86, 1.1)

Plots

3-<12mo_high

3-<12mo_low

3-<12mo_medium

3-<24mo_high

3-<24mo_low

3-<24mo_medium

3-<60mo_high

3-<60mo_low

3-<60mo_medium